Ed Fries sees a promising future for the game industry, but one he doesn’t think anyone can predict, especially not the current crop of major players.

Speaking in a video interview at [a]list Summit Seattle, Fries says, “If you’re a big existing publisher, it’s like everything you know is wrong and all of the people you have are wrong.”

Fries is the legendary programmer who moved from the original Excel and Word teams who put Microsoft on the map to become co-creator of the first Xbox. He now sits on the board of several small companies including Z2 Live, an indie game maker that’s the quintessential model for how to build a successful game business in the current market.

“Things were kind of quiet and normal for a while, but now it’s really hard to predict the future,” says Fries.