Jesse Divnich of analyst firm EEDAR has shared a forecast on game console performance through 2013 with Industry Gamers. Divnich predicts that even with a worst case scenario for Nintendo, the Wii will ultimately benefit from its current lead to ride out this console generation as the best-selling box. Divnich starts his argument using forecasted 2009 sell-through for consoles in the U.S., where Wii is expected to reach more than 26 million units compared to about 18.4 million units for Xbox 360 and 11.1 million units for PS3. The figures are derived from existing NPD install base data combined with EEDAR s forecast for console sales in November and December.
In his worst case scenario for Wii, Divnich assumes a 25 percent decline in sales in 2010, followed by two years of 30 percent declines and a 50 percent drop in 2013. For Xbox 360, he predicts 10 percent annual bumps capped by a 30 percent decline in 2013. For PS3, he predicts a 25 percent boost in 2010, followed by two 10 percent annual bumps, then a 30 percent decline in 2013. The scenario has Wii as the winner come 2014 with 41.7 million units sold compared to 39.2 million units of Xbox 360 and 33.4 million units of PS3. Divnich says that marks the end of this console cycle. However he predicts that Sony will pursue a strategy similar to PS2 leveraging PS3 s movie-playing capability, in this case Blu-ray, to support it into the next generation. Read more at Industry Gamers {link no longer active}.
