Total spend on digital advertising will reach $520 billion by 2023 compared to $294 billion in 2019. That’s according to a study conducted by Juniper Research, “Future Digital Advertising: Artificial Intelligence & Advertising Fraud 2019-2023.”

The predicted annual growth of 15 percent over the next five years will be a result of highly targeted artificial intelligence (AI)-based programmatic advertising and digital ads that include in-app, digital out-of-home (OOH) and over-the-top (OTT) television content. 

Amazon, whose ad revenues are expected to reach $40 billion in 2023, will see a growth of 470 percent from its 2018 ad revenues—per Juniper. The data reflects the fact that Amazon will capture eight percent of global digital ad spend by 2023. To drive that growth, Amazon will leverage its massive cache of consumer retail data, which is a major benefit to advertisers and direct-to-consumer (DTC) brands. Moreover, Amazon plans to heavily invest in machine learning to offer efficient targeting to advertisers and win over users from Google and Facebook.

Juniper’s findings also give a glimpse into Google’s ad revenue trajectory—by 2023, its ad revenues will exceed $230 billion. The research expects Google’s global market share of digital ad spend to fall one percent over the next four years as competing platforms such as Amazon and Baidu grow at a fast pace.

According to an eMarketer report, the combined share of Google and Facebook duopoly will drop in 2019 despite their revenue growth, while Amazon continues to take share from all players. Amazon’s share of the US digital ad market, eMarketer predicted, will swell to about nine percent in 2019.

Securing return on ad spend means companies must utilize contextual advertising traffic and machine learning. As a result, the data shows, 75 percent of global online and mobile ads are forecast to be delivered via AI-based programmatic advertising by 2023.

“Giving algorithms access to the vast amounts of data generated by advertising traffic, including purchasing habits, user buckets and geographical location, is critical to enabling advertisers to secure a return on their ad spend,” noted the report’s author Sam Barker.

Given Juniper’s findings, could Amazon finally be maturing? Interestingly, its 2019 first-quarter earnings offer insight into how that could be plausible. The results show that the company’s advertising revenue growth slowed, with revenues totaling $2.7 billion, compared to $3 billion the previous quarter and a consistent YoY growth in the past four quarters.