This year has seen a remarkable number of introductions of new gaming hardware — consoles of varying prices and capabilities designed for the primary purpose of playing games. So far we’ve seen Nvidia’s Shield, the Ouya, GameStick, GamePop, and soon the PlayStation 4, the Xbox One, Mad Catz’ MOJO, and likely Amazon’s Android box as well. This is on the heels of the Wii U introduction late in 2012, and the looming Steam Machines headed to 2014. The only clear winners so far (judging from preorders) are the PlayStation 4 and the Xbox One. Why?
Sure, massive marketing budgets are going to help Sony and Microsoft succeed. We don’t really know how their new consoles will do in the long run, but the strong pre-orders indicate an initial surge that should last some time. Nintendo had that with the Wii U, though, and sales fell off a cliff after the initial flurry of enthusiasm right after launch. Similarly, the Ouya had an amazingly great Kickstarter, but since actually shipping we haven’t heard much about sales.
The secret to success for dedicated game consoles is simple: Games. Not just any games, or a lot of games, or cheap games. You need great games. Ideally, with a unique experience of some kind that you can only find on that game hardware. Damn good games will do if you have a steady stream of them, but a great game can propel a console into wide acceptance all by itself. Super Mario 64, for instance, drove the N64 forward. Where would the original Xbox have been without Halo Sure, eventually the Xbox got a lot of good games, but Halo is the thing that propelled sales for a long time.
The Wii U’s biggest problem is a lack of compelling games and game experiences you can’t get anywhere else. Sure, there are some good games out for it, but many of them (like Just Dance or Call of Duty) you can get on other hardware. Pikmin 3 can’t carry the console all by itself, and Nintendo knows this. More great games are comping, but they have to be more frequent, not less.
The Ouya’s games so far have been a very mixed bag, and not one has been something you can only get on an Ouya that is driving people to by the console. It’s great to have 25,000 developers signed up, but what Ouya needs is 25 solid games. Or even just one or two that are great experiences you can’t already find on an Android tablet.
Exclusive games are important if they provide some compelling game play. Both Sony and Microsoft have lined up a large number of exclusive games for their new consoles. No doubt many of them will only be OK, and some will be really good, and perhaps a few will be impressive enough to generate hardware sales all by themselves. Hopefully many of these games will be impressive enough that you clearly wouldn’t get the same experience on a PS3 or an Xbox 360.
The speeds and feeds of game hardware are only important in so far as they enable games to be better, or unique in some way that’s really fun. The Wii’s easy-to-use motion control was a perfect example of a hardware feature that drove sales by enabling a lot of fun. The audience expanded because anybody could pick up a Wii controller and bowl or play tennis in a way they never could before. The Wii was clearly less powerful than a PS3 or an Xbx 360, and lacked HD graphics, but those things were unimportant compared to a lower price and unique game play opportunities.
The Wii U’s Gamepad controller isn’t particularly unique these days, not with the second-screen capabilities that Sony and Microsoft have been busy adding. Worse, the Gamepad has brought a different interface to many games but nothing that’s really resonated with a broad audience. The ‘asymmetric gameplay’ touted by Nintendo turns out to be as compelling as the 3D screen on the 3DS.
Sony and Microsoft have thrown immense amounts of money at proven, talented game developers in the hopes of getting some great games. Early indications are this brute force approach will work, but it’s not something a small manufacturer can duplicate. Nintendo’s working hard to bring out more key games for the Wii U because it knows that’s the secret to success.
A multiplatform game like Destiny will probably be an excellent game, but it’s not going to help either Sony or Microsoft differentially unless one version of the game has a compelling advantage. Halo for the Xbox One, if it’s as good as its predecessors, certainly will boost Xbox One sales. Amazon and Valve need to realize this before their boxes arrive on the market. Valve should look for some exclusive games, or at least compelling exclusive features, in order to boost Steam Machine sales.
If you’re bringing a new game console to market, throw in speeds and feeds only if you think they will create new and compelling game experiences. Otherwise you’re going to need a compelling price and a large marketing budget, and it will be an uphill fight. Remember that free-to-play doesn’t necessarily mean fun-to-play. Business models are useful and interesting, but if there’s not a fun game there the business model or the marketing doesn’t really matter all that much. Focus on great games and great experiences for the win.
